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Oooooo I wonder if this thread will become the next peak pricing insanity thread.
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It was the best of times it was the worst of times…what can’t be ignored is an automated future. And that can only exist with less people or UBI.
There’s already many forms of ubi being ramped up to cover things up. Was just reading this article earlier.
https://archive.is/b8lL5#selection-1091.0-1101.606
A govt that can feed you can also starve you. Which we’re learning about also right now
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Go into any Home Depot not dead center in a large city. Look at the parking lot, walk around inside and talk to the manager.
There you will see the recession in action.
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Home Depot’s financials are showing a growth earlier this year for Same Store Sales (or what I think they call Comparable Growth). Q3 saw a slight dip, but they still beat on EPS.
Home Depot comparable sales up 1% | OPE+ .
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/home-depot-lifts-fy24-outlook-after-3q-sales-climb-c7b5a62e
Time for you all to stop waiting around and get some Porsches.
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A lot of cross currents. To say outright recession with unemployment in the low 4s & GDP in the 3s is disregarding some important data. The real economy feels sluggish, but I’m not sure it’s recessionary, for now.
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If November sales are also abysmal, December could be a good time to unicorn hunt 
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I agree we aren’t in a recession, based on no small part to the GDP and unemployment numbers, which still seem largely believable.
But for the first time ever a President fired important leadership at Bureau of Labor Statistics for publishing data he didn’t like. Which raises concerns about whether the people in charge now would be willing to publish data showing negative economic headwinds.
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Definitely. They’ll charge a “robot tax” on AI/Automation to fund UBI.
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These huge tech companies are shuffling money around like nothing I’ve ever seen. Although doesn’t directly boost gdp it does indirectly.
More cap ex, lots of fees involved, and just the boost in stock price makes people feel wealthier resulting in more spending. These are massive amounts of money and it’s concentrated in just a few companies. It doesn’t give me confidence in the economy at all regardless how high the market climbs.
Unemployment numbers should start increasing soon unless they’re cooking the books on those. All I see is constant layoffs and negative news when it comes to white collar jobs.
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Your info is out of date. Hang on for the ride and get newer intel.
https://www.thestreet.com/retail/home-depot-raises-alarm-bells-with-unexpected-closure-layoffs
https://www.sfgate.com/news/article/past-due-auto-loans-at-highest-rate-in-years-21129013.php
As was said earlier, the top may not be feeling it but the middle and bottom sure are. That’s where the majority of the GDP is and it’s looking bad.
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Oh shittttt GPT feeding me 2024 data instead of 2025. Fuckin’ BullGPT.
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I wouldn’t consider 108 employees and 1 distribution facility the canary in the coal mine. Now you can look at their overall revenue and say on a net basis when you strip inflation their overall sales are actually down. On a YoY (25 versus 24) auto sales are actually up, however October could be the start of a downtrend and as you noted delinquencies are getting unhealthy. Housing activity (not prices) has been trending at the Great Recession trough and QSR has also been doing poorly. There are a lot of factors and it feels like we’re teetering, but as of the most recent data, we’re not there currently. Sadly, we haven’t gotten any hard data outside of CPI in a month. The other factor putting a damper on the economy are tariffs. All of the front loaded inventory is drying up; plain and simple, it’s now becoming a tax hike on everyone, but it’s mainly felt by those making under maybe $500k annually in lieu of a tax cut for the wealthiest individuals. If the stock market and housing market see value drops, then those individuals who have been shouldering the economy slow spending, then we may go from teetering to tipping.
The advice I gave earlier in the thread is to view the economy without a political lens, and I feel this view is pretty non-partisan (this last piece I try to keep non-partisan as well and just look at what’s actually going to happen). In May, we will be getting a new Fed chair, I believe this individual will be installed with a clear directive to grease the economy (especially before midterms), the effort will absolutely be inflationary, but the net impacts are unknown.
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This right here is why I haven’t sold much of my paper based pms in the last week. I may be wrong but I think there will be a minor 10-20% market sell off and people will go more so into crypto and pms than fiat.
As for the auto industry when my sales get very strong it’s usually a sign of a bad economy as people bargain hunt. And I’ve been doing close to my all time highs in sales the last couple months. My messages per day are through the roof as well. Not great data, as summer just ended and this is usually a good time of year, but a lot of people are buying base models and asking for cheaper leases. Return customers downgrading as well. Helps that ev deals are going away as well…
I’ve been bearish on stocks for awhile and most big cap stocks are down when basing them with inflation or priced in a stable currency like Swiss franc. It’s really a matter of when the wealthy get scared and start selling, until then this market is so bloated and pumped full of printed money it can def chug along another few years. The cash in treasuries can support minor dips too. I just think there’s too much cash in the system for anymore than a 10-20% pull back in any asset class. This is the new normal
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Yet GDP projections are hot if anything
S&P is up 20% over last 6 mo and 1 yr so that prob hasn’t worked out well for you
Stock market is the economy now and basically all current and future political entities have an increasingly vested interest in pumping it. When it pops nobody knows. Generally being bearish doesn’t work out on any time frames longer than immediate short term.
lots of seasonal stuff re car sales but ya it’s pretty clear the EV market is fairly saturated and the vast majority of EV sales would not happen without government subsidies. Has been the case for a couple years now
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I own precious metals and crypto I’m doing very well. My retirement is still in stocks however. The stock market is mainly up due to inflation and the mag 7. Bedsides that it’s lagging many asset classes
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100% agree. It is a bifurcated economy right now. If the stock market breaks, everyone will be holding back. Michael Burry two largest positions came out today and they are downside bets on Palantir and NVIDIA.
The biggest scam in history of world is Fiat money and the ability to continue to devalue. Central banks make a 2% inflation target sound like science, all they do is print more money out of thin air. Not complicated at all.
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