In 5 years, maybe battery costs will have come down.
Tough to know but if you apply some variation of Moore’s Law with battery tech/range/materials/recycling/cost… maybe replacements won’t be as expensive.
Might be more like 10 years but considering how Teslas came back down in price despite inflation… anything is possible. 
It’s case by case.
EQS is obviously a better choice to lease but that cannot be generalized to every EV. It depends on the numbers.
If we use the Prius as an litmus test for battery costs after 10 years, there are battery options available now at a fraction of the cost of what they were when it was new.
It’s easier to produce aftermarket when the pack size is miniscule. The bigger the pack and more integral it is to the structure the harder it is to replicate from scratch.
There’s been some serious strides made in refurbishing and or replacing modular components in failing packs but nothing is perfect and the costs out of warranty are still prohibitive for your average consumer.
I used to to think that replacement battery costs would come down with time and that battery replacements would make sense. I don’t any more.
My Model 3 dual motor has lost 14% of its new range, enough to be annoying but not enough to require replacement yet. With 80k+ miles it’s probably worth ~$21k on the used market currently, in part because you can buy a new base Model 3 with longer range than my car for 30k after incentives. In another 5 years will it make sense to replace the battery?
Tesla will have driven the cost of battery manufacture down (as I’d expected, though less sharply due to competition for materials). Unfortunately these cheaper new batteries will not fit (4680 structural or whatever replaces that). Meanwhile my Model 3 will have ~150k+ miles on it with bushings, bearings, CVs, etc all coming due for replacement. Even if that was done old tech like the resistance heater (no heat pump) would mean a fully refreshed car with then current battery tech wouldn’t have the range of a new car with the same batteries.
Recently a refurbished Model 3 battery was $13.5k plus $3.5k labor = $17k installed- 80% of the value of the car. Even if that becomes $6.5k plus $2k labor in 5 years the value of the car will similarly be half. And the car will need other work to justify the investment of a battery replacement. My conclusion is that it will make sense to repair the battery but replacement may never pencil- my car will likely get recycled when the battery goes. And if that’s the case with a high volume Model 3 I think it will be true for virtually every other large battery EV.
Even if I’m wrong and replacement becomes a thing this high cost (whatever it is) will cause massive depreciation for current gen cars. In part because progress: in 5 years there will be inexpensive cars with better range and performance and 500k+ mile batteries.
My conclusion is that it’s not case by case (with rare exceptions like the original Tesla Roadster). From a financial perspective I can’t think of a case where I would recommend owning a new pure EV now. In the cases where good leases are not available (ie Tesla Y) I’d suggest getting something comparable where they are (ie IONIQ 5). There are at least 3 guys at the office with Ys. Watching them drop $500k a week for the last year has been painful…
If someone can think of an electric they think it does make sense to purchase I’m all ears.
True, but necessity is the mother of innovation and it’s already been demonstrated that with a giant hole in the market with the older priuses have come solutions.
When Toyota made the Prius the battery was likely in the range of 3% of the cost of the car. On a new Model 3 the battery is 30% of the cost- a much bigger chunk.
Toyota was charging $4k per kWH for a replacement, expensive even at the time. The aftermarket pulled it down to more like $1k per kWh, so a 4x reduction (not hard because the cells themselves are so cheap).
Tesla’s charging $175 per kWh for the pack at $13.5k for the refurbished pack. The industry is currently expecting the manufacturing cost of battery packs to fall below $100 per kWh in 3-4 years. A 4x reduction like the Prius doesn’t look possible in the visible horizon with this math, and even if it happens replacing the pack on a Tesla is still an order of magnitude bigger spend relative to the value of the car.
What would it have cost to drive leased Model 3s for 80k miles?
I think in some scenario, a good use case (if one qualifies), is to bring a $30k car down to $22500 (or even lower with state rebates)… I think the Bolt is the only one in this range.
But now that many EV leases are passing through that Fed credit, purchase is not as good (and many buyers and EVs don’t qualify).
The prius batteries when new were like $12k
I think the Model 3 was a good purchase five years ago, in part because there were no better options. But that’s not the comparison I’d make. Instead I’d look at buying now vs leasing say an IONIQ 5 for example. You can lease the Hyundai for ~$.50 per mile with charging and warranty included, significantly lower than it cost me per mile to run and maintain my Model 3 for 80k miles when deprecation, electricity and tires/ maintenance are included. And I had a very good run- only changed the 12V.
How many years back are you going to get 12k for the regular Prius? Over a decade?
Even so even way back in the day they never cost Toyota 12k. 3% of the car’s cost is based on cost to the manufacture, not price to consumer.
The base Model 3 is still a great purchase if you live in states with EV incentives and you’re under the income limits. For me, because I don’t qualify for any incentives, makes no sense to pay $15k more than others.
Yes, decade or so.
The fact of the matter is it was a $12kish battery replacement cost then and there are $2-3k options now.
Source for your $12k ten years ago? This article from 12 years ago discusses Prius battery replacement costs in the 2-3k range, so I’m not clear where you’re getting your figures from:
You’re then making the leap that this steep decline implies replacement costs for a pure EV might come down by a similar factor in ~10 years? If so all the cost curves are against you. Bloomberg New Energy (typically aggressive) has Lithium Ion pack cost at $100 per kWh in 2026 and $80 per kWH in 2030.
$70 per kWh for a pack plus 15% margin is $6200 for my Model 3 in 2033 (it won’t make it that long). Add labor and you’re back to well more than the value of the car…
What I expect will actually happen is that there will be an industry parting out the battery cells in Model 3s to mix and match to extend the life of a pack by maybe 30-50%. At that point my car and batteries will be scrapped and the battery material recycled to make new cells.
That said owning the car in the second half of its life may well be a very cost-effective option: if someone buys my Model 3 for 21k today and can drive it until it dies at 200k+ miles that may well be ~$.20 per mile plus electricity. Meanwhile buying a new Y now and driving it 1000 miles a month you’re currently seeing ~$1.80 per mile in depreciation alone.
I believe that will be transitory and it will make sense to buy again, but right now I don’t see it. A sub 30k model 3 maybe it can beat the lease options if you get the right incentives, but many of those lease options are getting awfully good too.
I could be off on my timeline. Im looking to see if i can find the sources i have aeen report that before
The Leaf used to have a 10k repair, and the Tesla S had a 10k price as well.