Deal Check - RAV4 Prime XSE + PP

That’s an awfully broad statement that seems to assume not being able to get an equally good deal on the RZ. I got a 23 RZ for my daughter in April when they upped the lease cash to $20K for about $9K single pay for 27/7500 less $750 affinity plan certificate. That’s just about 300/mo with expectation to extend to 36 mos at about $280/mo backing out DMV for the first year (per LFS). So, OP’s hoping to be at this exact same level IF everything remains status quo: low used car supply, high demand for hybrids, high oil prices and a D in the White House. In the meantime, I’ll take a nicely loaded RZ over RAV4 any day off the week and twice on Sunday without having any micro/macro risks.

You do realize that RZ is larger than RAV4 with more passenger room and storage space, right? And if range is a concern for an occasional road trip, Lexus gives you free ICE vehicle up to 3x per lease term.

CarMax is also selling some of their very numerous (flipped?) RZs here in so cal for up to $50K (as of last week) while Lexus dealers start at about 40K.

Here’s what the 3 y.o. RAV4 Prime go for
https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?sourceContext=carGurusHomePageModel&entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d2992&zip=91367#listing=381265973/NONE/NATIONWIDE_SHIPPING

Or https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?sourceContext=carGurusHomePageModel&entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d2992&zip=91367#listing=385069690/PRIORITY/DEFAULT

There are high mileage cars starting at $30K in this market… which implies MMR in the 20s, right?
https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/inventorylisting/viewDetailsFilterViewInventoryListing.action?sourceContext=carGurusHomePageModel&entitySelectingHelper.selectedEntity=d2992&zip=91367#

You’re linking se trim not the xse with premium package…huge difference. They’re very hard to get discounted. Many dealers mark them up. Op is getting 3500 off plus 6500 incentive. He will be golden sans any major market disruption