No idea what I’m doing, but I’m doing research and trying my best. I’m coming up on the end of my 2020 Honda Accord lease, and looking to return it and lease a 2023 CR-V Sport Touring.
The payoff price on my Accord is about $19k. It’s in very good, but not perfect, condition. Looking on KBB and Carvana I’m seeing trade-in value estimates of around $24k-$26k.
So far I’ve gotten some numbers from my local dealership, they’ve been dragging their feet on giving me the full specs of the deal so I’m trying to work with what I’ve got so far (I’m working on getting quotes from other dealerships, and also telling this dealership I need to see the whole deal or I’m walking away):
Money factor is 0.00262 and residual is 65%, these numbers match what I see in the supporter calculator.
Trade-in value was $20,500. This seems low, but how far off from typical is that? I assume you shouldn’t expect the trade-in value to match what you could get from a 3P, but how much of a gap is reasonable?
But I don’t have the cap cost yet, only monthly payments (I know, I know). The numbers I have are $579 with $2,000 down, or $482 with $5,000 down (I know, I know). These numbers include the ~$1,500 equity from the trade-in.
So I played around with these numbers in the calculator to try and back out to the cap cost. It looks like a cap cost of around $43,250 would give those monthly payments along with these other numbers, which is about 7% above MSRP.
So, couple questions. First, I realize I’m not going to be able to get very far with incomplete information, so I’m telling this first dealership to send me the full deal, and I’ve asked for quotes from a couple other dealerships. In the meantime, I’m looking for some feedback on these numbers. Is there any rule of thumb for what to expect from a trade-in vs. a third-party sale? I’m wondering how far off that $20,500 is. And as for the cap cost, I realize the market has been crazy and the CR-V Hybrid is hot these days, but is it fair to assume that 7% above sticker is still crazy? On TrueCar I see a lot of these cars selling for right around MSRP, is that the right expectation?
edit: Just heard back from this first dealership with the full terms of the deal. My 7% over MSRP guesstimate was wrong – looks like the cap cost is exactly equal to the MSRP. After plugging the real numbers into the calculator everything matches now.