Deal check-2020 Atlas Cross Sport SE

This site has been super helpful, didn’t know a thing about leasing and now feel somewhat competent! Would love input on this lease proposal:

Michigan (Detroit area)
2020 Atlas Cross sport SE w/technology + 4 motion (2.0L)
MSRP: 39,394
Sale price: 37,519
Rebate: 1,750
Selling price: 35,769
$2000 total out-of-pocket (includes acquisition fee, first month’s payment)
39 months/ 15k miles
MF: 0.00068

Residual:51%
Total monthly: $455
Dealer says it’s the “bottom line” but can probably get to $445-449 with approval

Thoughts?

Im also fairly new to leasing and considering a Cross sport the Atlanta area, but haven’t reached out to a deal yet. I’m surprised by the sale price, thought it might be lower which would help offset increase from the low residual.

Did they provide you with the MF and Residual?

There’s a deal here for 259/mo 7500 mi. $1999 down. Wondering if I can apply those same factors while keeping in mind that it’s a different market from Detroit.

4.75% pre-incentive seems fairly low compared to what I recall seeing others of these going for

Do you think at least 10-12%?

Yeah it seemed a bit high, I expected more off the MSRP for sure. Ended up getting the monthly payment down to $425 with the same terms from dealer #2. Haven’t looked at the deal on paper yet so not sure how it all shakes out in terms of price breakdown. Original dealer never even called me today to follow up, odd experience overall !

MF and residual from the first dealer are in the OP, not sure what dealer 2 is using but we’ll see tomorrow. Barring any surprises I’m taking it. $425 was my target payment and honestly I’m ready to be done with the scouring. I respect the hustle, this is work!