Where exactly are you seeing inflation? Food and energy are flat to down. Housing has basically flatlined. The Fed was raising rates for the sake of raising rates and having some ammunition in its back pocket to be able to loosen monetary policy in the event the economy slowed down.
I’m not saying that a slowdown is impossible, but a 2008 scenario, which was triggered by the bubble bursting in a very loose-lending housing market, created by rising interest rates (Fed Funds hit 5.25% in 09/2007), is unlikely. There’s no catalyst for it this time around. I think, at worst, we have a soft landing, and the economy sputters along at 0-1% growth for a few quarters before the Chinese turn on the printing press and everything normalizes.
Default rates on alt-a and subprime on most trenches were sub 10%. Student loan defaults are currently running around 20% and are a much bigger problem. The treasury just had a great report about borrowing needs for the next decade. They need 9% of world wide assets to reallocate into treasuries. Well get inflation when not sure. And the next recession whenever it happens not saying I see one coming will be worse then 2008 you have too many kids younger then me strapped with debt from college. I remember a couple years ago I did some work for a Vw dealership I found it humerus that all the mortgage guys that never went to college flipped and went into car sales.
I’d agree, but you can’t stay in an upturn forever. There’s going to be a recession…there’s no way around it. The question is how bad and when it will hit. Student loans are going to cause grief in the near future.
Housing market in CA is in a new high price record.
The most positive value in the current economy equation is the low unemployment %.
If nothing else was dramatically changed, it means other markets in the world are growing faster(especially China - check their housing market). If they grow fast, price of goods goes up, demand goes down. US market is huge catalyst in the world economy.
When people are working and buying less, the Fed should leave the interest on 0%. But apparently, they did that exact opposite.
So…
Man we should just offer free college for all. That should fix the student loan debacle even though govt intervention made it so expensive to begin with. Then medicare for all legal or illegal who cares like NYC is planning to do now. Social security for everyone even if they never paid for it or if they are legally into the country like i know people get once they hit 65. Actually lets bring everyone in and just open the printing presses. We got plenty for everyone. Should make Lenin and Marx jealous of what we can achieve. Then we can all be equal. The poor here or veterans who cares for them, they only worth some empty promises during election time. Right there we solved all the problems. No more booms or recessions. And let me tell you what happened in Venezuala happened before in early 90s in East Europe. It can happen here very quickly as well if we chose to do so.
Either way the Fed messed up keeping rates so low for 8 years. It messed up with natural economic cycles. But they had to because elections are important and anything that would have created even one iota of downturn would have been used as ammunition against the other side and the ones in power would refuse to allow that. I had liberal leaning person tell me they were hoping a big recession happens in summer 2020 so Trump loses. Same as with Obama or Bush, when the other side wishes for failure we have turned the corner for worse as a country and society.
So in the end, enjoy life and live well. Spend time with loved ones and try to give back to needy people.
China and Australia are tied to the hip. Just look at The middle kingdoms growth to world power over the last two decades. A lot of natural resources came from Australia. I think the oddest thing last time I visited Australia was how many young people drove expensive (I.e. ferrari lambo) cars. Always wonder how long China can get away with building ghost cities and lying about economic numbers. Guessing longer then I’d think
Yeah, I get it…they haven’t had one in 27 years. The US hasn’t had a downturn in almost 10. Historically though, name a single country that hasn’t had ebbs and flows throughout history. I’m not saying there’s going to be a recession tomorrow, but it will happen eventually.
Food prices keep rising, rents in SoCal are crazy high, car wash, every time I got it’s up a dollar. Restaurant meals keep going up, lunch with drinks, desert for two is about $100 where we used to pay $80. I need to raise prices for my business (automotive related) because many of my costs keep rising. $100k income in SoCal is peanuts. Why is that? Because the prices of many things we want cost more. Housing my have flatlined, but $1 million dollar homes are everywhere, add property tax and limits on interest deductions. Medical keeps going up, college goes up, other insurances up as well. Yea TV and refrigerators maybe flat, but you don’t buy those often. Actually high end appliances are costing more and more. Construction services keep going up. Just hired a contractor, price per square foot double what I paid in 2015. So yes, there is inflation.
Opinions, everyone has them I guess. I can debate every single point i made but not the right forum for it. Lets hope we continue the party till 2025 and no major recession. And lets Make Automobiles Great Again.
So you linked to the BLS data that confirms there’s no inflation? The government aims to keep annual CPI at 2% - we’re under that. I’d agree that California is its own market, and is somewhat in a bubble - a lot of the home prices are set by funny money coming out of the tech sector, which has seen record fundraising and equity market increases. Obviously, this can’t continue, but the overall trend in the US economy is that it will continue to grow and likely come to a soft landing, but to say a recession, which is defined by 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, is likely, is a little bit of a stretch right now. I do, however, think that the Fed is done with interest rate hikes and will not raise in 2019.
You can check other markets with my previous link:
If NY, Cal, WAS, will start a local recession, the rest of US will follow. If Wisconsin will start a local recession, it won’t have the same effect (with all the respect to Wisconsin).
Anyways, like @NY13 mentioned, it’s not the right forum, and at the end of the day most of us follow the market whether we like it or not.
