BMW x3 Lease Question

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Hi! Frequent browser, first time poster.

I have two weeks to turn in my current car BMW x5. I need two new front tires and I am over 1200 miles. I am looking to reduce my payments - so I was thinking about an 2019 x3 s model. Also I am located in South Florida.

Here is my deal:
MSRP 45,495
Discount 8251
Selling Price 37243
Taxes 7%, dealer feee, license, tag fees
Total cost - $41,047
$529 due at signing
$529 a month payment - 36 months/15k miles

They are going to take my car back and not charge the miles or the tire replacement.

Thoughts on this deal? My other option is a 2019 Jeep Grand Cherokee Limited 4 x 2. We are really trying to keep a low payment and low out of pocket costs - If I trade in my car ($350 miles overage, $600 tires, and $350 return fee).

Any help would be appreciated

I was going to say that sounds like a horrible deal, but then I noticed they’re rolling in the extra costs from your old car. My suggestion is to jump on craigslist or offerup and buy a couple used but within compliance tires for super cheap and then negotiate without the “forgiveness”. Our X3 (MSRP ~ 51K) that we leased a few years ago was 399 after MSDs for 12K miles. I’ve seen some similar deals on this site for 10K miles, so maybe add 50 bucks for the extra miles? I’m not really in the loop, but I feel like you could do better.