BMW lease buyout offers

With my lease coming to an end and all the people here seeming to have positive equity in their leased vehicles, I looked around for offers and compared it to my lease buyout price to see if I could come out ahead. I have a 2018 340i with 6 months left and I’m about 4,000 miles under allowance. Turns out I’d break about even. Just wondering if it’s because the high rv at time of lease (61% I think) doesn’t reflect current reality or if BMWs just don’t hold value al that well on the secondary market. I know some people who have MB a and c classes and they’re getting great buyout offers. Can anyone explain the discrepancy?

The initial high RV is a good bit of it. One of the ways in which a captive such as BMW FS can facilitate or incentivize sales is by increasing the RV above what it will most likely be in 24 or 36 months time.

If you still need a vehicle and you like it see if you can possibly extend the lease if you ask FS.