I believe that both are closed end, someone correct me if I’m wrong. So yes there is the possibility of a balloon payment, but it’s no more meaningful than the residual value of a lease as the owner/lessee is under no obligation to pay it and can just turn the vehicle in.
That is true, however with the way tax law is written in Chicago, you avoid paying an additional 9% or so in consumption tax making the effective tax rate 17% on leases vs. 8.5% with a balloon payment.
Getting a bumper fixed is cheap, maybe $200 or $300. Get it inspected and go from there.
Advise: find a used Audi bumper on EBay, get it painted and have the body shop slap it on. I did that to my X5. Max I paid is 1700.