Edited this into the main post, but:
Do you think it would it be worth cold emailing VW dealerships letting them know that if any cancelled (TN) orders arrive on their lot, we’d buy right away (provided MSRP, no add ons, OTD pricing in writing, etc.)?
Worth looking but many people are doing the same thing as you.
My bad, thought it said 55
You can always try, but my local Ford dealers are adding tons of ADM, just looked at an 80k lightning with a 20k adm sticker on it.
I know. It’s nuts out there. The 2 local VW dealerships where we placed the ID4 reservations each promised to honor MSRP, but who knows what OTD pricing will look like. One of them said she “couldn’t” give anything more in writing than the assurance that MSRP would be honored. Clearly, I’m new to all of this. Not sure whether that’s a red flag, but I figure I’ll cross that bridge when, if ever, I come to it.
If total cost includes the $7500, your best bet is to call around for Mach-E Selects or Premium RWD.
Very hard to get them at MSRP but a $45k Select with a $5k blessing and then $7500 back puts you where you need to be.
The other is the Leaf… haven’t shopped one in a while but those might be easier to get than Mach-Es.
Don’t forget Sales Tax. Leasing the 4xE had a sales tax advantage on resale over buying
Get a base 2023 BMW 330e. If you pick it up before 1 Jan 2023, it will qualify for $5,836 (not the full $7,500, because the battery is only 12.5kwh).
BMW even advertise it on their website. 330e, 330e xDrive Plug-In Hybrid Electric Sports Sedan | BMW USA
I picked one up a 2 weeks ago at 6% under msrp. The total cost pre-tax credit should be around 45k. After tax credit it should be under 40k.
Galpin VW and Glendale VW are showing one or two 2023 ID.4’s in stock. Glendale is showing six 2022 ID.4’s in stock, most with MSRP below 50k. No Federal tax credits on the 2022 models, though.
A 2022 would defeat the purpose. Both of those dealerships have been marking up cancelled 2023s min $5k from what I’ve seen (their inventory pages seem to reflect that as well).
In terms of availability…
Mach-E Selects, ID.4 2023s, lower end Ford Lightnings.
These were not high demand trims anyhow and honestly resale value is getting worse for them with the used car market collapsing.
FYI my Florida VW dealer had multiple 2023 ID4s at MSRP. I helped them sell one by posting photos of one on FB after my test drive (I’ve declined more cars from them than bought lol)… so contact a few out of state.
The thought of a BMW hadn’t crossed my mind, both because of the associated luxury and I’d limited my search to vehicles that got the full $7,500. I’m still not sure I’d be able to justify buying a Beamer hah. But certainly will consider.
How did you manage 6% under MSRP? What are your thoughts on it now that you’ve got one?
Like you, I’ve been looking at eligible vehicles all year, even since I bought my Outback this past summer. The juice unfortunately has not been worth the squeeze. Which is why I decided to wash-sell some stock that is down but I’m planning to keep for the duration, just to generate the tax losses. Not to say you might not luck into one, but as mentioned there are lots of people doing the same. The less expensive stuff is gone or marked-up (and won’t be come February). Even at MSRP or slightly under, an X5e / 330e / S60 T8 is more than I want to spend, and not something I’m certain I want to own.
Your idea of fishing the VW dealers isn’t a bad one, and you might have more luck out of state since there are still CVRP/CVAP people chasing CA cars (they have to buy here to claim those rebates).
The hot, wet insanity is almost over, right about the time the most generous version of the tax credit turns into a pumpkin.
Can’t find a Pro in Cali for cheap. Been looking for DECADES!!! 
Even at MSRP or slightly under, an X5e / 330e / S60 T8 is more than I want to spend, and not something I’m certain I want to own.
My thoughts exactly! I’d more or less mentally capped my search at vehicles under $45k, but was hopeful I’d find my way into one of the less expensive options if I could swing it. Swing and a miss it seems.
As I said, we are in need of another car – finally drove my rusted beater from grad school into the ground. Mechanic said, “Stop driving and sell it yesterday, while you still can.” So the urgency is definitely there.
Practically and financially, I’d want to put an order in for a sub $30k Prius and be done with it. But, again, given that I’m sure we’ll owe $10k+ this tax year and nowhere near that next year, it seems like such a waste not to at least attempt to take advantage. Even if that means buying something otherwise not in our budget. To your point, it’s scary to consider spending so much on something I’m not sure I’ll want to keep and doesn’t really thrill me to begin with. Not sure what I’ll end up doing, but, at the very least, I figure the starting point is considering whether anything is actually available.
Best of luck with the stock maneuvers! That’s another beast entirely, isn’t it.
I think you are misunderstanding how the tax credit works.
What is your motivation to buy this year and why wouldn’t you owe $10k in taxes next year?
Picked the 330e from a broker on here. Sam from Ezautogroup.
I was looking at a XSE Camry hybrid, but they were all going over msrp and it ended up being more expensive than a 330e.
I’m surprised at how well equipped the 330e is. The 2023 now comes standard with a massive screen (the same screen as the over 100k ix) and the red interior is a no cost option. It’s also reasonably zippy. If your commute is within 20 miles, it’s a pretty good choice. The interior quality feels pretty good to me. Wireless full screen Apple CarPlay is nice!
Go test drive one, my wife felt in love with the red interior. So we pulled the trigger on the same day when Sam told us he has them for 6% under msrp.
I’d talk to an accountant about carrying that liability into other years, or other alternatives, etc. i am not one but I’m sure there’s got to be a better fiscal decision than buying a 40k+ depreciating vehicle to avoid paying 7.5k in tax this year.
You can find EQS SUVs at msrp, qualifies for 7500 till 12/31. Just requires a couple emails.
Shouldn’t you be somewhat picky though? The federal rebate only cushions depreciation by a bit, after sales tax, after that it could become costly depending on what you choose.
Same goes for safety.