Wait what? The OP is estimating his loss to be 84% loss. Let’s say you are ultra conservative and put $41K in a high yield internet bank that is FDIC insured at 2.25%. After 10 years you would have $51,217.34.
At 6% market return return per year you are at 66,784.68
I don’t know that giant financial institutions are bundling piles of high-risk car loans and reselling them as AAA grade investments.
That’s assuming what down payment?
So, while you do that how are you getting the car?
This sounds like either get a car or take all the money and invest them. Plus assuming person has $40k to plunk right away while buying usually people have nothing outside of $2k for signup fee.
Where do you source these statements?
A timing chain should be good for 10 years/150k. If the water pump is driven off the timing chain, then upon water pump replacement the timing chain would probably be replaced at that time.
If it has a Timing belt instead of a chain, well that gets replaced as noted at 60 k.
Over seen Carvana, Exeter, Santander issuing bonds lately some of which deteriorating pretty fast.
As for payment - don’t know what sing ups are. Just seen this stat coming from Expirian in their State of Auto Market quarterly presentation
I think your combining a lot of de-coupled statements.
But as to the investing statement, even investing the $300/mo-$400/mo you’ll save from leasing in a safe bake mutual fund/IRA/401k will yield better.
Analyzing charged off car loans portfolios as a part of my job:) I guess I see mostly the worse slice of the market.
Then the calculation errrr guess means nothing.
Fun with Compound Interest !!!
What if you hit the jackpot !
at 10% return you’d have $106,343
But even better if you could get 50% returns then you have $2,364,266
Why?
I’m using Experian stats. I think their source from their databases which doesn’t track sign up fees but does loan amount, loan term and loan payment.
How can you possibly make an accurate calculation of the length of an aggregated group of loans, anyway, with so many moving pieces. Let alone without even an aggregated down payment estimate?
GIGO.
In my example I’m using a 60 month loan at 4%. With top tier credit. If you buy the car outright you’ll save $3000 in interest.
Btw two friends; one has an F150 350k miles. No engine work. Other has a Ford Ranger that he bought on one of those dealer offers, “two at this price” he paid $22k about 15 years ago. It has 275k miles on it with no engine work. Both trucks look excellent and everything works on them. Pretty cheap driving.
Sure why not
I’m sure those stats are real, but the numbers you previously posted are clearly from somewhere else.
Whatever combination of those numbers you plug in, the bottom line is that your paying less each month by leasing. That difference in payment can be put towards something else, whether it be a mortgage, investment or vacation. It’s something one should consider in this debate rather than assuming it’s going to nothing as OP had originally done.
Thank you for nitpicking my numbers being grossly out line with the presentation.
As for the original idea - I stated that general statement “you can invest and get better return” assumes general public can get better return which is not the case for most in general public.
And which is when this whole topic got sideways.
Source, please.
This is a lease hacking forum, nitpicking numbers is in our blood! 
But I’m actually glad you posted those slides, it’s quite the comprehensive overview.
Tax is a huge deal, especially for states that only tax the monthly. The tax difference on my fart car is huge, on my 24 month lease it’s almost a year worth of lease payments. $400 vs $2800. Payments on that $49k are crazy, like $800 before interest, you could choke a horse on that payment, even if you had $8k you roll over from a previous car, you’re high $600’s before interest. I don’t quite understand the math, at least from a cash flow standpoint. Personally I don’t want that much monthly tied up in vehicle