2018 MAZDA CX5 GT AWD - Trade In, Purchase or Sell Privately?

Upon reading,(Renegotiate residual after extension), with some answers given by @eathanrs I am looking for a bit of guidance.
Going back to the dealership I got it from will be considered a “grounded car” and if my understanding is correct the dealership can get it well below my residual value /quoted purchase price at the end of the lease at either market based value or wholesale.
Current trade in value told to me by the dealer over email is about $20k, however I see them being sold for $25K and up with very similar buildout and miles in my area/ 50-100mile radius. There seems to be quite a delta from what they can purchase it for and then sell it.
2018 Mazda CX5 AWD Grand Touring, black on black, extras (roof rails, rear step guard, electric start)
May 2021 lease return, currently has about 34K miles, so I am already over by 4 thousand. I will be much closer to 40K by May.
$0.15 per mile over, so I figure about 10K over so $1500 by May 2021 if they hit me with the fee.
Warranty is about to end due to the 3yr/36k.
Also expect disposition fee at end of lease regardless since Toyota Financial took over from Chase.
Buy out / residual value at time of return is $19.8K
Currently buyout quote is $22,500 from Mazda capital, probably includes taxes, would need to double check.
Dealership is currently offering me up to 120% of trade in value till the end of Oct. 2020, tomorrow!
Of Course this is only if I bring it in to have it appraised, which I understand you get your best deal when you are actually at the dealership though if there is nothing wrong with the car I would expect then to get back $24K. Happy to go in however looking to have a plan before then.
Had to get new tires ($750) this time last year, all four as it is AWD. A black bear decided to use my passenger side tires for floss after destroying a hay bail and eating the pumpkins at the end of the driveway. Yes unbelievable.
I like the car and I am happy with it. I am trying to decide whether to trade it in , purchase or sell it privately.
As mentioned earlier @eathanrs mentioned in the post I reference above about being able to actually get the “market based value” by asking the dealer. I sent an email to the dealer asking about the “market based value”, if I were to ground it today (got back to me and is saying again it’s $20k) . Was hoping to see if that is correct/ honest, and again to see if market based value and trade in value are the same or not.
If I just trade it in, is there anything that can be done in order for me not to be losing whatever equity there may be in the vehicle or at least cover the fees I will be looking at?
Or if I decide to trade it in and get a new lease how do I maximize my leverage in this scenario?
Any other input or suggestions I would greatly appreciate.
Thank you

It’s no surprise that there’s a delta between what the dealer will pay for them and what the dealer is listing them for sale. There’s no reason to expect a dealer to buy it from you for anywhere near what they’ll sell it for.

I would also take any dealer advertisement that says “we’ll pay you up to 120% of book value” with the biggest grain of salt you can possibly find. Remember, if they pay you $0 for it, it falls into the category of “up to 120% of book value”.

First thing I would do is get purchase quotes from carvana, shift, vroom, algo, etc. You need multiple data points here to work with. Then, once you have some idea of what the vehicle is actually worth, you can start thinking about what you could get for it from a dealer.

Remember, if you sell it to a private party, you’re going to have to buy it first, which has certain tax liabilities, depending on state.

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