2018 BMW X3 - Buyout lease or not?

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I have a 2018 BMW x3 / x30i under a 3 year lease that ends in March 2021. The lease is for 30,000 miles. Currently I have 19,000 miles on it. I would like some advice on whether to exercise the lease buyout or start shopping around for a new lease or look to buy a used car? I’d only be interested in compact SUV’s like the X3 from BMW, Audi, Mercedes. I am in NYC.

The car has an Adjusted Capitalized Cost of $44,000, the residual value is $30,000 (before fees & taxes), that is what my purchase option is set at. The depreciation was set at $14,000 and the Rent at $4000, which works out to approximately $515 per month in lease payments or $560 per month (including taxes) - this is what I am currently paying per month. The car is in good condition, has a few nicks on the body. I like everything about it other than the fact that it doesn’t have the blind spot detection lights on the side mirrors.

Any thoughts, advice, questions welcome. Thank you in advance.

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Check the actual value with sites like vroom and carvana. Have you talked to bmw about any discounts on the residual? Some people have been getting them lately. If the market value is significantly lower than the buyout, then I’d walk away from it (turn it in)

What would be the benefit in your case for buying out now instead of waiting for 5 months? @mata

My apologies for not being clear, I am seeking advice on buying out at the end of the lease term.

This is a useless question. How can anyone predict what the vehicle will be worth and the market for a new lease deal will be then?

I am just interested in how to analyze / think about the decision. Yes the market & numbers will change.

It’s too early to analyze the situation. If you want to sell now and buy another car that’s another situation. But with BMW’s, 95% of the time your car is worth less than the buyout so it won’t make sense financially.

There’s no analysis without numbers here. And hypotheticals are pointless, so ask us in March.