2018 BMW X2 lease advice


Got an initial offering from a dealer in Arizona. First time considering to lease a car. Not a current BMW owner. I will really appreciate any advice and insights.

How do you think of this as the starting point? How much room do you think there might still be? Targeting more than 15% before $3,750 rebate reasonable? This is not a loaner. <20 miles.

2018 X2 sDrive (FWD)
MSRP: $40,384.00 ($39995+ dealer installed tint)
Sale Price (before rebate) : $35,500 (12% off)
Rebate: $3,750 ($2,750 lease cash + $1,000 conquest)
Adjusted cap cost: $31,750.00 (21.4% off)
MF:.00222 (initial asking for removal of the markup was turned down)
36/12 residual: 58%
Zero drive off: $456+tax=$495

For reference, I started with an inquiry on a loaner special with 4,400 miles on it. Only has basic info below as I mainly just asked the sales to structure the price for the first one following this loaner.
2018 X2 sDrive (FWD)
MSRP $37395
Cap cost $29,328 with 59% residual $3,000+startup fees ($6,375), $219 + tax/ month

I don’t know but $495 a month for a car worth $35K seems high.

The money factor is about right of they are waiving the acquisition fee. If not I would move on to the next dealer. Anything more than 12% before incentives is getting into rare territory. 18-21% I’ve seen advertised on loaners. Remember loaners have lower RV. Xdrive also has 3750 instead of 2750 lease incentive.

MF markup in-lieu of acq fee is .0005, so the minimum would be .00232. Seems like the dealer is marking up the MF by the max of .0004 for pure profit.

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Thank you all for the very helpful opinions!!