2017 Lexus ES300h Deal

I’ve been looking at used ES300h 2015 inventory but they either don’t have the color combo I want, or the mileage is too high, or the price is too high, or both. So here’s what I’ve got for a new 2017 deal so far:

MSRP: 47,954
Selling Price: 42,438
Doc Fee: 80
License/Title: 405
Acq Fee: 795
Incentives: 5000
Net Cap: 38,729.86
Money Factor: .00001
Residual: 48% (12k/36mo)
Money Down: 1,000 (1st Mo + DMV + Fees)
Monthly: 437.05 + 41.52 Tax
Total Monthly (Inc 9.5% LA Tax): 478.57

Funny thing is some of the used 2016s/2017s they’re trying to sell for 38k. I’m going to try and squeeze it down to the low 400s if I can get a little more discount plus that $1k lexus certificate from the LA Auto show. Anybody know how much more dealer discount is realistic? 13%? 14%?