Truecar price is a ballpark and most dealers will tell you it includes incentives. It doesn’t always directly relate to leasing however most companies will offer very similar incentives for leasing and purchase within a few hundred dollars so it gives a good start for ballpark calculations. You never know until you actually contact a dealer.
I think some companies are getting smart about residuals for these plugin hybrid and electric vehicles. BMW is selling the i3 with 60%+ residuals but then finding they can’t even sell them for 40% or so. 17-18k cars 3 years old that were almost 60k are the norm. Consider a regular hybrid (not plug in) and see if you can do better. I bet that the new Accord hybrid in a few months will be a great vehicle and likely with a much better residual.
You might have more luck with the regular Hyundai sonata hybrid without the plug in. I have the BMW 330e plugin and frankly it’s just not worth it without better range. Home electricity prices go up, or you switch to time based pricing but then have to pay more for everyday usage for lights at night, doing laundry during the day (do you really want to stay up past 11pm to do laundry) etc. My electricity went up $30-50 per month. Sure I save a bit in gas but not much compared to a regular hybrid. It’s a wash and unless you want to be on the forefront of a tech revolution just in front of the utility curve then I would get regular hybrid or just regular fuel efficient vehicle.