2017 BMW X3 lease - help me with this proposal please

2017 BMW X3, loaner car.
5500 miles
s28i model - 4 cylinder, 2 wheel drive

premium, drivers assistance, and navigation packages.

Here is the dealer’s first offer:

36 month, 12k/yr lease

MSRP: 49,220
Selling price: 40,351 (~18% off)
Residual: 29,705.35
Money factor: 0.00125
Total drive off: 1,335.96 (1st months payment, license, tax, registration) PLUS 3,150 security deposit (I told her I wanted to max out)
Monthly lease: 410 + tax

From my review, it looks like the money factor is inflated and the drive off includes a cap reduction. Plus, I thought BMW was limited to 7 security deposits (which would total 2,500, not 3,150). The initial offered selling price isn’t bad at 18% off MSRP and the residual seems awfully high (70%+).

What am I missing or mis-analyzing? What is the correct money factor?

Residual is 60% $49,220 / 29,705

FWIW, that’s the same MF I was just quoted two days ago (.00125). I’m not sure where the cap reduction that you’re talking about is coming from (looks like just standard fees, plus the MSDs), but I’d call or email the dealer and ask for a specific breakdown of the costs just to make sure they didn’t add anything in there.

OK. If the $1,335 is standard (1st months payment, title, registration in CA), then should I only be pushing back on the MF and the selling price? Based on the Leasehackr calculator, the MF should be 0.00076 after 7 MSD’s.

Also, what is the minimum Leasehackr score before someone considers a lease a “good deal”? 10 years? 15 years?

A goid deal is 10 years, great deal is 12 to 15 and once in a lifetime is 18 to 20 years

So update. Been talking to a dealer (Crevier in SoCal), but they refuse to drop below 13% MSRP on a 2017 BMW X3 loaner. They wouldn’t even consider my counter, which seemed odd. What’s my best bet here? Unfortunately not many dealers have the exact features in the X3 that I want. But am I right to expect a ~20% reduction from MSRP for these cars right now?

I have them for less.

And I hate Penske!

Nothing to do with the Car Business though… I was a Michael Andretti fan when I was a little kid