So just to close this out, ended up getting this deal:
2016 BMW X1
Premium, Luxury, Technology, Driver Assistance, Driver Assistance Plus, Cold Weather (basically fully loaded, only thing it didn’t have is M sport…also important to note this car that I ended up getting has more features than the car I mentioned in my original post)
MSRP: $46095
Gross Cap: $40590 (~12% off MSRP)
Residual: 63%
MF: .00134
7 MSDs
Adj MF: .00085
Term: 36 Month/10K miles
Final Payment: $413/month
Cash at signing:
Normal fees: License/Reg/Tax/Acq fee/etc: $1916.22
MSDs: $3150
Total: $5066.22
Happy with this deal. Wish I could have come down a bit more (under 40K would have been great), but literally no one in the Bay Area (talked to 5 dealers) would bite on that. Everyone just said “sorry, can’t help you”, even after I walked away 
. Either way, coming from the first post, which, which was a wayyyy worse deal, and on a cheaper car, I feel good about where I landed. Good lessons learned though, and maybe will be able to do even better in 3 years.
Thanks @Ed_Churchward – you really helped me here. Your post that you linked to was invaluable, and I highly recommend everyone else follow that advice.